25 April 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A reversal to challenge for 9274. Make or Break today???

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

nifty25 April 2017: -

On 24 April 2017: FII Net Sold – 279.55 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 984.17 Crs

Nifty opened on very strong note yesterday and passed 9160 resistance levels in morning hours and then took one sided move. This forced me to believe that market is not going to be back to lower levels immediately. Moment it goes above 9200 it got better confirmation.

Now it is going to be one more attempt to make a newer all-time high. I repeat that Nifty level of 9274 is a stiff resistance but a test of this level cannot rule out. Today is definitely going to be an interesting trading session.

For today’s session, I am expecting market to open on flat to positive note. Momentum suggests that if Nifty sustain above 9225 – 9230 then one can prefer to be on long side with an expectation of levels near to 9274.

9274 is going to be a very stiff resistance. Once it crosses above 9274 then I can expect a move for 9500 levels. Do we have enough fuel for this this kind of fresh up move? This remains a big question. That’s why I am saying that today is going to be interesting session to watch.

Caution note is clear – first one has to watch for weakness on small cap and mid cap indices. Before top, there may be the days where mid cap and small cap indices will be negative and bluechip index will maintain flat to positive note. I will look on small cap and mid cap index to compare relative under performance.

Strategy for Nifty May future – It has sustains above 9200 yesterday and generated a buy signal which was surely beyond my expectation but it has happened. Well, as it has happened so long runs to challenge for a new all-time high today. I can say that I have no idea what is going to be at higher levels. Either it can violently up or it can be violent reversal. Those who went with long trade can hold but if not then just do not trade at higher levels.  

BANK NIFTY May future – This index is the only one which shows the sign of strength. As long as it is above 21700, we should believe for up and only up. Technically, add long or hold long with stop loss 21700 which may be little big. On higher side it can reach the levels of 22200 in short time span. There is no point of thinking short at any levels.  



24 April 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We can expect 9000 support to be tested on expiry week!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

nifty24 April 2017: -

On 21 April 2017: FII Net Sold – 978.34 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1132.39 Crs

Welcome back, I am writing after a long vacation. Last time, we advised short on Nifty Future at 9230-9240 ranges on April month future to hold for last week. Nifty continuously slipped whole last week. Now, we are on expiry week and time has come to take position in May month series. Right now, US futures are trading with massive gain and this is indicating that market may open higher but it will not be much higher.

After hitting a staggering 9273 levels, Nifty has failed to impress at top. I have quoted for threshold support at 9000 which is still too far to talk. Nothing much has changes on chart for whole this month. Well, have a look on momentum indicator RSI which is running with divergence. Its impact must come this week and to make impact on derivative expiry.

For today’s session, I am expecting market to open on flat to positive note. I can still quote the importance for levels, support will emerge at 9060 and then straight at 9000 levels. On higher side 9160-9180 may be the zone of stiff resistance. Do not think that something great can happen immediately to make this market broader for trading.

9274 is going to be a very stiff resistance. Once it crosses above 9274 then I can expect a move for 9500 levels. Do we have enough fuel for this this kind of fresh up move?

Caution note is clear – first one has to watch for weakness on small cap and mid cap indices. Before top, there may be the days where mid cap and small cap indices will be negative and bluechip index will maintain flat to positive note. I will look on small cap and mid cap index to compare relative under performance.

Strategy for Nifty May future – I am all prepared to take new position for May month series.  It is likely to open around 9160 levels. I am not expecting anything great above 9200 levels. We can expect weakness at higher levels which can again continue for this week. well, if this can sustain tall above 9200 levels then only we can expect positive but that will also not going to be impressive.

BANK NIFTY May future – Bank Nifty usually keeps the key for expiry week. It is still saving market and showing better strength than index. I am strongly advisable not to deal this index on negative side as no firm signal has formed yet. If Nifty has to show power on higher side for bulls then contribution from Banking index may be massive. Perhaps, this index is the reason that I am keeping some reservation from shorting on Nifty in massive way. This is balancing index. These are the days to trade light. 


13 April 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Is toppy coming or it has already done? Unless Nifty closes below 9140, we cannot get confirmation.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

nifty13 April 2017: -

On 12 April 2017: FII Net Sold – 580.70 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 701.12 Crs

Well, Nifty is moving around 9200 and I took some trade on index on short side. This is definitely after a long time and with my calculated risk. Trade should have been taken after 80% confirmation from technical indicators side but i took trade even after it was not that strong sell.

Clear way, my stop loss for short is the all-time high. What drive me to take this risk? I am already quoting from past many days that weakness will come first on mid cap and small cap stocks. Money used to move out from weaker or small stocks first and then it move from heavy weight.

For today’s session, I am expecting market to open on negative note. If it sustains below 9140 then a short signal may emerge which can be strong enough to make a forward trade for next week. This is still more than 60 points away from current levels. Remember, market will be on long holiday from tomorrow. On higher side it will face resistance at 9240 and then at 9274.

9274 is going to be a very stiff resistance. Once it crosses above 9274 then I can expect a move for 9500 levels. Do we have enough fuel for this this kind of fresh up move?

Caution note is clear – first one has to watch for weakness on small cap and mid cap indices. Before top, there may be the days where mid cap and small cap indices will be negative and bluechip index will maintain flat to positive note. I will look on small cap and mid cap index to compare relative under performance.

Strategy for Nifty April future – I have added short on 9240 kind of levels and my stop loss is at 9300 and now I am not going to touch any trade for index. Well, above is my trade and my decision and many may not agree with it. One has fair point. I took a risk. Unless it closes below 9160 I will be on fair amount of risk but I deal based on risk-reward ratio. Let us see.

BANK NIFTY April future – Not need to chance analysis. Levels and view remains same. BANK NIFTY should not be touched now as long as it is trading below 21700 levels. Chances are higher that I will not prefer to trade index. It has crucial threshold at 21000 levels which is still nearly 2% away. It is suggesting that market is trading with unfavourable risk – reward ratio. Can it sustain up? I doubt. 



11 April 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I repeat, now avoid longs as momentum is global market is cooling down.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

nifty11 April 2017: -

On 10 April 2017: FII Net Sold – 262.37 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 414.94 Crs

Fine, I was expecting another dead session and we got this. Now for today’s trading session we have a technical support which is at 9140 to 9120. If this levels breaks then it will break the demand line on daily chart.

How crucial is going to be this? Well, I cannot see big sign of threat but surely, one may not get good on long side either. So, it can either be no trade or wait for opportunity to be on short side. I have quoted yesterday that if nifty stand above 9200 then shorting must be avoided. It failed to manage to stay above 9200. So, I am on my decided rule.

For today’s session, I am expecting market to open on negative note. If it sustains below 9200 then it has higher chances of moving towards 9140-9120 levels. I must say that trend will be named as up as long as it is above 9000 but that’s not a trading view. A bull cross over point is another new all-time high. It seems that condition to be up –is – formation of newer high on frequent basis the way DJIA has done in past.

Caution note is clear – first one has to watch for weakness on small cap and mid cap indices. Before top, there may be the days where mid cap and small cap indices will be negative and bluechip index will maintain flat to positive note. I will look on small cap and mid cap index to compare relative under performance.

Strategy for Nifty April future – Nifty April future looks to open around 9200 levels or may be below. At one sense it is going to be a decisive weak opening. Technically, I prefer to be on short side if it maintains levels below 9200 for sometime. May be today can be the day where we can expect levels of 50-60 points on downside. Well, take a note that for this to happen, trading range must be broader than past few days. Let us see.   

BANK NIFTY April future – Not need to chance analysis. Levels and view remains same. BANK NIFTY should not be touched now as long as it is trading below 21700 levels. Chances are higher that I will not prefer to trade index. It has crucial threshold at 21000 levels which is still nearly 2% away. It is suggesting that market is trading with unfavourable risk – reward ratio. Can it sustain up? I doubt. 



10 April 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Avoid long unless it gives strong signs of short covering. Momentum may miss again.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

nifty10 April 2017: -

On 07 April 2017: FII Net Sold – 262.37 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 414.94 Crs

Well, 9273 is the high so far for Nifty and since then we are unable to see upward momentum. In true sense momentum is missing. Right now, global market cannot be at least named as weak. Experiencing from past many days, we can conclude for a dull session today. It is still advisable to restrict trading activity in this kind of market condition. It is better to go on stock specific moves rather than index.

9300 levels on Nifty is going to be levels which can face tougher resistance. On other hand we have trading support at 9000 levels only. So practically at 9200 points we are on bad risk – reward ratio for long trades. Hence, I have point to avoid long unless I see some great sense of short covering based rise.

For today’s session, I am expecting market to open on flat note. Technical has not given many sign of weakness yet but some momentum indicators are suggesting that negative trades or one can say a pullback may come. Will this pullback be impressive? I have doubt.

I am concentrating on cement and steel stocks.

Caution note is clear – first one has to watch for weakness on small cap and mid cap indices. Before top, there may be the days where mid cap and small cap indices will be negative and bluechip index will maintain flat to positive note. I will look on small cap and mid cap index to compare relative under performance.

Strategy for Nifty April future – Nifty April future looks to open around 9200 levels. Well, I am still not saying to trade short above 9200. If this can sustain below 9200 then only I can think to trade short and also if that’s suits in momentum too. If market sustain higher and give me any sign of short covering then my choice will be a definitely long trade which is not looking easier right now.

BANK NIFTY April future – BANK NIFTY should not be touched now as long as it is trading below 21700 levels. Chances are higher that I will not prefer to trade index. It has crucial threshold at 21000 levels which is still nearly 2% away. It is suggesting that market is trading with unfavourable risk – reward ratio. Can it sustain up? I doubt. 



06 April 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It’s a caution day as global market is not remains same as of yesterday.

niftyYou must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

06 April 2017: -

On 05 April 2017: FII Net Bought – 340.13 INR Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 194.05 Crs

Nifty extend as expected and hit a high at 9273 levels. Today is going to be eighth day from the low of 9024 levels which was a gap fill low. Technically, this extension can go to hit a high around 9300 but this may looks to take some time now. Global market is not supportive now. DJIA slipped more than 1% in past trading session from its high point and even futures are trading lower.

This drives the SGX Nifty to trade in negative zone. So is it alarming now? No, it just can hit sentiments but technical threat is still not present. For caution, suppose if nifty trades below 9200 levels then only I will consider as first sign of weakness. Well, even after global weakness, this point is well 65 points away. I am avoiding long for the day.

For today’s session, one can expect a negative start backed by SGX Nifty. Trading threshold support will be at 9200 after gap down. One may consider that Nifty may take a 40-50 points negative start.  

Caution note is clear – first one has to watch for weakness on small cap and mid cap indices. Before top, there may be the days where mid cap and small cap indices will be negative and bluechip index will maintain flat to positive note. I will look on small cap and mid cap index to compare relative under performance.

Strategy for Nifty April future – Nifty April future looks to open down with loss of 40-50 points which itself is just not good to trade long for the day. Suppose, if it failed to fill gap down then this may turn to be bear gap down which it itself a bad formation on chart.  If it starts trading below 9220 then we can expect levels of 9170-9160 as next support.

BANK NIFTY April future – BANK NIFTY has closed just above 21600. Well, support if it breaks below 21400 after gap down then one must avoid any kind of bottom picking. This may extend well on down side. If fall comes global in nature then things may go on reversing note. Well, 21400 is make or break levels.  



05 April 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A fresh ALLTIME high must invite a short covering rise very soon. Today, tomorrow or anyday!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

nifty05 April 2017: -

On 03 April 2017: FII Net Bought – 534.45 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 33.29 Crs

I said on Monday that I am expecting 9300 on Nifty by this week only. We got some good rise on very first day of the trade. I am expecting this to extend as of now. RSI maintains strength backed by fresh momentum. Things may be good for today also. Somehow it is giving me a feeling that market may extend more above 9300. I am still not able to see short covering kind of rise.

Basics of technical analysis are saying that at all time high there is no resistance as those are newer levels. One must avoid any kind of shorting adventure. There is no toppy formation coming so far.

What can be the next possibility above 9300 levels? Well, it may be complex to answer but I will not surprise to see Nifty hitting towards 9500 levels. I must repeat that as long as Nifty is above 9000 we can expect fresh money to hit anytime with good intensity. Global market is firm to neutral but no threat yet. Economy data is also supportive for rise.

For today’s session, one can expect a positive start. In simple sentence, I can say buy the pullback on the hope of 9300 as target. We get start close to or above 9300 itself. Will we get a pleasant short covering rise? This is still a question.

Caution note is clear – first one has to watch for weakness on small cap and mid cap indices. Before top, there may be the days where mid cap and small cap indices will be negative and bluechip index will maintain flat to positive note.

Strategy for Nifty April future – Nifty April future looks to open at 9280+ levels. Remember, we do not have short covering yet. If this can able to maintain above 9300 then I can expect for short covering rise. We got little in last trading session but I want a violent up side.  One should maintain strategy to buy pullback.

BANK NIFTY April future – This index is running at 21500 levels and this is my threshold. I can expect fresh strength from current levels if fresh money hits the market. Well, I will prefer to trade long only if it can stay above 21600-21650. Let us see if we can able see that levels or not. As per as supports are concern we can expect good trading support at 21300. 



03 April 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty is expected to break 9218 sooner. My weekly target is 9300+ levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

nifty03 April 2017: -

On 30 March 2017: FII Net Bought – 295.92 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1499.41 Crs

From the low of 9024, Nifty has slowly moved towards 9175 levels. It is slow but steady moves. It took complete five trading sessions. We are in new financial year and market is steady. I cannot say that market is showing any weakness. Rather I can say that it is showing consolidation.

I have study on MACD and RSI; both are still running with no threat. If any threat has to come that will come only if Nifty breaks 9000. Well, that’s very far away situation.

If strength continues then we can expect Nifty hitting 9300 levels by this week. This is my expectation. Avoid shorting unless Nifty starts trading below 9000 levels.

If market has to make a top then very first sign will not come from Nifty. It will come from small cap and mid cap indices. One must follow those very closely.

For today’s trading we can expect to open on positive note and then market may trade with silence. If momentum comes then we can expect rise to resume. Technical trading support will run somewhere near 9140-9120 levels. I am expecting market to resume momentum sooner. Possibly on higher side. I am still suggesting, one must and must watch mid cap and small cap stocks.  

Strategy for Nifty April future – Nifty April future looks to open at 9200+ levels. Remember, we do not have short covering yet. As long as it sustains above 9200+ levels, we can sense a rise. There is no question of shorting immediately on top. I keep my eye on short covering rise if come. Note that I am not claiming for short covering. This is my condition to trade.

BANK NIFTY April future – This index is running at 21500 levels and this is my threshold. I can expect fresh strength from current levels if fresh money hits the market. Well, I will prefer to trade long only if it can stay above 21600-21650. Let us see if we can able see that levels or not. As per as supports are concern we can expect good trading support at 21300. 



30 March 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expiry day – Will it challenge for a new all-time high? Nothing is impossible.

niftyYou must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

30 March 2017: -

On 29 March 2017: FII Net Bought – 460.98 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1283.03 Crs

Nifty filled the gap up and then went up with the formation of almost double bottom reflected on chart. There is one intermediate top with the bottoms and that top is 9135. Right now Nifty has closed above this threshold. Hence, we may have reasons to expect a bullish derivative expiry. Just based on technical price momentum we can expect expiry day high to be around 9200-9218.

On different side technical indicators like RSI is not showing great strength. Well, it is not either showing warning side of weakness. It may be decisive sooner. In past two days of pullback, Advance- Decline was not as strong as we would have expected it to be near all-time high. This is a point of concern.

Take a note that if market has to make a top sooner, then it is going to be mid cap and small cap stocks which will see early sign of weakness. Logic is simple, money prefer to move out from the relatively riskier stocks first.

I am keeping my view for rise right now but I am not very firm on the move that we can move too far from current levels. It is consolidating and outcome may be anything.

For today’s trading we can expect the rise to continue. As said above we can expect 9200-9218 as a high on expiry day. I have no call after hitting such levels. If it advances further than it must be short covering or it may see a fall from those levels to form double top. As I can read momentum indicators like RSI and MACD, I am not very confident to buy for next month either. Right now, bullish for the day.

Strategy for Nifty April future – Day before yesterday it gave a buy signal which is continuing right now. SGX Nifty is giving a start above 9200. This is good and better. This can invite short covering. Remember, you cannot enjoy more than the short covering rally in any mode of market. Technical says, target can be defined on magnitude of short covering. I am hoping; let us see how much it comes. Big question – Will it even come or not? If Mid cap or small cap indices goes in red then avoid any kind of long.

BANK NIFTY April future – This is still better than Nifty. It is good to see it above 21450. DO you know? BANK NIFTY has previous high at 21336 and yesterday it hits 21408. Surely, better than Nifty which is shy by nearly 1% from its previous top? So, this index is a better buy in case of buy. Technical says, I can expect levels of 21600-21700 for the day. 



28 March 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expect dead sessions before derivative expiry. I favour No trades.

niftyYou must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

28 March 2017: -

On 27 March 2017: FII Net Bought – 577.88 INR Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 594.48 Crs

I have nothing great to add and hence I am not very active in these days. Only technical conclusion is that Nifty has support at 9000-8980 levels which market is respecting form past few days. I am still expecting the possibility of range bounce session irrespective of derivative expiry week.

On higher side 9100 may be another tougher resistance. Is it giving you any kind of feeling that we are on all-time high? I can quote little important point for market dynamics. One such is fall in cement stocks and another is forecasting of poor monsoon by skymet weather. Market is already not responding to new all-time high.

For today’s trading we may see flat to positive opening but more or less market will stay in range. Do not expect anything more than 40-50 points difference between high and low. If I am right then market will see fresh selling in some selected sectors, one must be cement and another can be steel.  

Do not be blindly bullish. Every stock may not generate money. I am convinced to remove this warning part (paragraph given below) form my analysis. When I issued this it was 9100+ and then it hit a low around 6825. I am not bearish on my trades from 8400 itself. A true sense is that Indian market may not fall at least for in coming three months from here.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. It is definitely true that my next target has done come. Still from 9100 to 6825 was not bad either. 

Strategy for Nifty April future – I have no great point to be active on index right now. Nifty is likely to open around 9130 which is definitely a good start. One can trade long in first half and short in second half just the same way as it has moved yesterday. I favour no trade. I am expecting that Nifty can test a 9160-9180 on higher side which may be a trading opportunity.  

BANK NIFTY April future – Bank Nifty March future is trading at 21100 levels. If market has to move higher side then Banking index will move more than what Nifty can move. It has logical to expect something 21250 on higher side. Technical support will be at 20900 levels. It may not move much beyond given levels. 



24 March 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Do not trade in dull session. Support is still at 9000 or around.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

nifty24 March 2017: -

On 23 March 2017: FII Net Bought – 1094.44 INR Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 590.78 Crs

Well, it has worked well near the support of 9000 and took a bounce much before that. Still, momentum is missing. There is no euphoria. Today is the day when we can expect initial hour action. First big question is that will Nifty able to sustain above 9100. If it fails to do so then I believe that there may be second attempt to fill the gap.

As market used to be dull from past many trading session so I have no great hope for today either. I am expecting an initial up trend for 1-2 hours and then it will either turn silent or it may turn heavy. Technical support should be at 9040 and then at 9000 levels. Both supports are too far from current levels. Market must be negotiating for something at these top. So far, I fail to understand the cause of this kind of moves. General sense is that it should be bullish sign.

Do not be blindly bullish. Every stock may not generate money. I am convinced to remove this warning part (paragraph given below) form my analysis. When I issued this it was 9100+ and then it hit a low around 6825. I am not bearish on my trades from 8400 itself. A true sense is that Indian market may not fall at least for in coming three months from here.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. It is definitely true that my next target has done come. Still from 9100 to 6825 was not bad either. 

Strategy for Nifty March future – Nifty is likely to open on 9110 as indicated by SGX Nifty. Meaningful trading support is at 9080-9070 levels. I am expecting the test of this support for today’s session in second half. On higher side 9160 is a resistance. I have no great intention to trade dull days. It is safer to be on holiday.

BANK NIFTY March future – Bank Nifty March future is trading at 20900 levels. I am not convinced yet for big rally mode from this pullback. I see the possible support at 20700 and then at 20500. On higher side market is not showing any great comfort on technical indicators. Small trading range may turn dicey anytime and at any levels.  



23 March 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 9000-8980 is still decisive – Make for 300 points or Break for 100 point more.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

nifty23 March 2017: -

On 22 March 2017: FII Net Bought – 356.64 INR Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 799.91 Crs

Definitely, I was expecting this pullback and it stop at very expected point – a level near to 9000 on Nifty. It is just a gap fill up trades. As it has filled the gap up so we can see good trading support running at 9000-8980 levels.

This is interesting level where we can expect market to take a pause. If it really a breakout situation on long term chart for next big rally then this is perfect point for bounce. My expected support will remain at 8980 which I have quoted in past few trading session. I am still suggesting that traders must watch the reaction at 9000 or nearer support level. Here, we may have big trading opportunity. If it breaks then it can be alarming. If it makes then 9300 may be on the card