29 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 8000 was never turned to reality and broken 200 DMA. LAST HOPE FOR BULLS – 7750 before major MAY month sell off.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 29 April 2016: -

niftyOn 28 April 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 120.63 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 416.21 Crs

Expiry goes extremely wild and it failed to cross 8000 marks too. Many said I quoted for expiry at 8100. Well, one should completely. 8100 would be applicable if it would have gone above 8000 but that was never being the case. I usually do not trade expiry day but we added short once it broke 200 DMA and we forward those. I was definitely very late as I would not consider to trade.

Here comes reality. Global market has suddenly turned extremely weak.

For today’s session, market may take a gap down. Now if it failed to fill the gap and then breaks 7750 by any chance then big bear will enter in the market. Be ready for MAY month BIG sell off which can hit very sooner. So 8000 remains untested. Bulls has last hope at 7750 levels.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty May future – I introduces short at 7950 and surely I was very later. It happens as I was not looking for trade. Well, I was late but not very later as market is expected to take a gap down. I was fair to react only at 200 DMA. If things go in my way then I may expect levels of 7750 which is next decisive point. I may be right by good extent on predicted for a brutal sell off coming either in May or in June or in both months.   

BANK NIFTY – 17000 was never be a reality with decisive cross over. It has tested but never sustain. I must say that banking index is not as weak as Nifty but today is the day when it can be weaker than Nifty. Below 16700 we may see a big tank down towards 16250-16000. I stick on my view for target towards 14000 by next few months. 


28 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expiry can go as wild as 8100. Do not short the top as no top is final yet.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 28 April 2016: -

niftyOn 25 April 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 222.34 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 747.95 Crs

Before expiry it was a soft trading session yesterday but there is no great sign of weakness. I must say that 7980-8000 is a psychological and technical resistance. Cross above 8000 may cause a short covering rally on expiry day due to trapped bears. Just because of trapped bear I am not bearish.

How far can Nifty go above 8000? Well, it can be as big as 8100 levels. I usually do not trade expiry day and today I just prefer to be out although I have sensed a long trade yesterday by closing minutes.

For today’s session, keep an eye on 8000 levels. If 8000 has to come for Nifty then today is best day to hit and most desirable day to react. Take a note that 7980-8000 is a zone of resistance and I am not claiming anything before that. I have no position to react. I am sensing a day with UP which can be further UP by closing minutes due to short covering.  

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty May future – I exited my long yesterday in flat range although signs were there to hold long. I am not bearish yet due to trapped short. I am expecting 8050 levels at least by today. If time favours then one can expect levels of 8130. Think – its kinda big rally. Can reversal possible? Anything is possible.  

BANK NIFTY – I said yesterday that some technical facts are indicating that above 16800 we may have reasons to believe for 17000. We got this target. Can it sustain above 17000? I must say that short covering can cause a hit for 17300 levels. Technical support will emerge at 16800-16850 levels. I may not opt to trade this index. I am focusing more on Nifty. 


27 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: If 8000 has to hit then today is BEST day. Will this give short covering rise?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 27 April 2016: -

niftyOn 25 April 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 222.34 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 747.95 Crs

This is a simple short covering which came in effect once Nifty has crossed 200 DMA yesterday. For whole month shorts were trapped and they make a forceful exit. Hence, we saw a good rise. Whatever rise wants to come it should come by short covering towards the end of this expiry. Take a note that it is too early to name as buying at top.

I must say that as long as Nifty is above 7800, it is giving bullish pattern. Equally above 200 DMA i.e. 7870 is adding strength near to psychological 8000 mark. I make a good exit yesterday on the anticipation of this short covering.

For today’s session, keep an eye on 8000 levels. If 8000 has to come for Nifty then today is best day to hit and most desirable day to react. Take a note that 7980-8000 is a zone of resistance and I am not claiming anything before that. I have no position to react. Note that Nifty makes double bottom on hourly chart.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty May future – Yesterday, I traded long which was eventually came on the cross above 200 DMA. It was purely backed by sensing short covering. For traders, no rally is better than short covering rally. I always used to enjoy this. 8050 is a key threshold level to react. Let us see what is going to happen.

BANK NIFTY – I said yesterday that some technical facts are indicating that above 16800 we may have reasons to believe for 17000. We got this target. Can it sustain above 17000? I must say that short covering can cause a hit for 17300 levels. Technical support will emerge at 16800-16850 levels. I may not opt to trade this index. I am focusing more on Nifty. 


26 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Close below 200 DMA but it is still saving support of 7800. Higher chance of selling.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 26 April 2016: -

niftyOn 25 April 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 222.34 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 747.95 Crs

We are just near to derivative expiry. Beginning of this month, I have predicted for a top to come with two events. It could be either with rate cut or it could be with quarterly earnings. I am getting a feeling that top may have done for the short term. Well, I still need two more days to judge this properly. Here is the condition for top. NIFTY should never cross 7980 and then it has to close for two days below 7800. Can it happen? Yes, it can.

We have already seen close below 7870 but it I just first close. One thing is for sure that this market will not give up so easily and hence trade will not be unidirectional at any cost. Typical pullbacks are bound to come at these levels. Let it come.

For today’s session, opening may go soft but optimism will still grow. I am not saying anything about the impact of this optimism. I just have a warning – do not buy on rise or fall. If one has bought stocks in fall, prefer to give us. Intraday support is at 7800 for Nifty. Read more for Bank Nifty in this article itself in last paragraph.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty April future – Today, I will take a fresh short on May month future. I will pick my own time. So today is the last day for April month analysis. April month future will get support at 7830-7820 levels but these supports may not work. Only selling will intensify with the breaks of these levels. 7800 is a key. Below 7800 we can expect panic sell off.

BANK NIFTY – I said yesterday to note a point of 16750. This is nothing but 200 DMA and hence market will not find it easier to break on higher side. As long as it is failing at 16750, just short this and keep stop loss above 16800 levels. If I am right then I see a possibility of 16400-16300 very sooner. Some technical facts are indicating that above 16800 we may have reasons to believe for 17000. 


25 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty goes on Expiry week. Can 200 DMA be able to save market?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 25 April 2016: -

nifty

On 22 April 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 191.07:  DII Net Sold – INR – 168.64

We are on derivative expiry week and Nifty has closed above 200 DMA for a crucial last week. This may give hopes to bulls but one pullback is still missing. I see a possible sign of reversal from psychological hurdle at 7980-8000 levels.

So far, Nifty has saved 7870 levels which is 200 DMA too. As long as it is near to 200 DMA trading direction may depends on intraday trigger. If it breaks 7870 then a dip is possible but as long as it is above 7870 it want to move towards 7980-8000 levels.

For today’s session, opening may go soft but optimism can govern the rule. I want to see Nifty below 7870 to initiate intraday trade.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty April future – We already hold short on Nifty Future from 7950+ levels. I am still keen to see reaction at 7870. I may prefer to exit from my shorts if fall does not come now. How long to wait? Trading at 200 DMA does not necessarily means bearish as it is staying above those levels. If Nifty future breaks 7870 then 7800 may be the possibility.

BANK NIFTY – Bank Nifty has surpassed 16500 and hence it is giving signs of extension of rise. Now 16500 is still a key but going in favour of bulls. As long as it holds 16500 we can expect 16900-17000 levels. Now, Below 16500 do not opt to buy. A fall should be nearer. Note a point – 16750. It may be a top against all technical levels. 


22 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Can it hold 200 DMA support? If not then 1% immediate cut is possible.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 April 2016: -

niftyOn 21 April 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 805.42:  DII Net Bought – INR – 65.72

As expected, Nifty has faced hurdle at 798-8000 levels with a high at 7978 and then a fall. Well, so far it is saving 200 DMA support and trying to make momentum. I have already said that it has to face stiff hurdle around 200 DMA. It may not be easy to move higher. Can this resistance convert in to weakness? Well, even for that we need to see closing below 7870. Today is crucial day for closing levels. Can it close above 200 DMA for this week?

I still believe that we may face resistance in the zone of 7980-8000 levels. This is technical resistance as well as psychological resistance too.

For today’s session, opening may go below 7900 and then we have a decisive support at 7870. If it breaks 7870 then we can see a fall. Even fall may not come so easily. Let us see. I took short on rise yesterday.

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty April future – Crucial support comes in the range of 7870-7860 levels. We may see 1% dip below 7860 levels. A good point is to add short on weakness. I do not prefer to trade long today. So far, market has not shown any sectorial under performance.

BANK NIFTY – Bank Nifty has surpassed 16500 and hence it is giving signs of extension of rise. Now 16500 is still a key but going in favour of bulls. As long as it holds 16500 we can expect 16900-17000 levels. Now, Below 16500 do not opt to buy. A fall should be nearer. 


21 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expect a wild attempt for 8000 levels as we saw three close above 200 DMA in a row.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 21 April 2016: -

nifty

On 20 April 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 80.10:  DII Net Sold – INR – 300.90

We recommend a short yesterday. Well, I am not as bearish as of now. It is important to note yesterday’s low which was at 7877. Take a note that now market is saving 7870, 200 DMA support. This gives me a sense that one should avoid unnecessary shorting as long as it is above 200 DMA.

I still believe that we may face resistance in the zone of 7980-8000 levels. This is technical resistance as well as psychological resistance too.

For today’s session, opening may go on positive to higher side as indicated by SGX Nifty. Here is one opportunity to test 8000 levels. Well, do not ignore my long term warning sign. I am strongly firm on my view that market is running under long term down trend and this is odd almost 1000 points bounce on Nifty but not enough to say that market goes bullish. Fibo cycle is bearish.

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty April future – One can expect opening around 7950 and we may expect levels of 8000-8020 levels if this can hold support of 7930 levels. I am not sure about second half. We can see weakness in second half if it has to come. My first move is Up and then a Down.

BANK NIFTY – Bank Nifty has resistance around 16300-16500 levels and this is still in resistance zone. We can expect 16500 sometime today or tomorrow. Is it a bay? Well, we may see soft long trade for target around 16500. It does not have much scope to go much higher above 16500.  Big profit taking is very close. 


20 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A psychological resistance of 8000 to act after 200 DMA. Break above 200 DMA is decisive but not easy.   

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 20 April 2016: -

On 18 April 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 977.98:  DII Net Sold – INR – 313.22

I am back after a long weekend vacation. I have already updated for a short covering move above 7760 which should have faced hurdle at 200 DMA. It means that resistance should have come into act from levels near to 7870 itself but it has surpassed more and l

nifty

ooking to advance more. One thing is clear; above 7870 this is not for short to hold.

The next logical resistance can emerge at 7980-8000 levels. I am intact on my long term trend. I must say that a toppy pattern can emerge very soon. It is looking like a bulls trap above 7900 levels. Let us see.

For today’s session, opening may go on positive to higher side as indicated by SGX Nifty. I still believe that it is dangerous to be long above 200 DMA as it is too steep. I am not short yet but I may look for such opportunity.

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty April future – Above 7780 it has done too much as SGX Nifty is giving levels of 7970. Can we get this? I

 cannot deny the possibility. If it comes then I may look for opportunity to short only with small stop loss above 8000 levels.   

BANK NIFTY – Bank Nifty has resistance around 16300-16500 levels. I am clear with my view that market may not find suitable environment to move above 16500 levels. We may see short signal sooner and very sooner. Long opportunity may persist till 16500 but beyond that we may see a toppy formation. 

13 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Time to bet for 200 DMA which is at 7870+. Litmus test 7760 for short covering rise.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 13 April 2016: -

On 08 April 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 180.27:  DII Net Sold – INR – 159.01

Massive upside on global indices and its futures are driving Indian market future for 7800 on Nifty. It was a logical target from past many weeks. We got some shocks wave of fall for a day in between. Now, it is the time to talk about Up and 7800 too.

200 DMA is at 7870+ levels which are well 2% away from current levels but I find it fair to talk about this target. I still repeat that it may be easy for market to move upward. It always needs driving force to move up.

For today’s session, 7760 is a zone of resistance in rise. If it can sustain above 7760 then we can see firework. Scary bulls or say weak bulls can pull their hand from market. We need brave bulls to act. As long as NIFTY is above 7670, we should not be worried. Long can hold.  

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty April future – I have already projected for a possible rise towards 7780 which looks to come as gap up opening. Even if this gap up fills then also market is bullish. Above 7810 we can see short covering rise. Be long as we hold long. Think to give up long only if it breaks 7700.

BANK NIFTY – Bank Nifty is not as sound as NIFTY but sectorial performance can begin anytime. As long as it is above 15800, it has a possible soft buy signal. Can it retest 16300? I can hope for this to happen although I do not have good technical confirmation yet but we may see such buy to emerge during trading hours. Let us see. If I see weakness from higher levels then 16300 may be my test point for shorting.  


12 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Shall I bet for 7800? It may not be so easy to move UP near 200 DMA.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 12 April 2016: -

nifty

On 08 April 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 180.27:  DII Net Sold – INR – 159.01

I squared off my shorts and turn long once Nifty crosses 100 DMA yesterday. This paid me well, very well. Shall I be bullish then? At first sight, I must say that I am not so bullish although I opt trading long. For nifty, 7800 should remain a big challenge for short to long term and we are here and there near to that level.

I still open with my view for 7400. One can trade contra long which was a signal yesterday but do not forward long trades till it surpass NIFTY 200 DMA.

For today’s session, 7700 is a zone of resistance. Even if it manages to cross 7700 then also it will face resistance at 7750 and then at 7800. It means that it has too much resistance to deal with. Below 7630, bears will get welcome. Do not buy fall.

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty April future – I am expecting a flat opening but market will run with garden of opportunity today. I am keen to see trades above 7720 if it comes and then I will try to find point to trade long. For second half, if rise try to die near 7780 then I will opt shorting from rise. Let us see how much opportunity comes.  

BANK NIFTY – I have said for resistance of 15800. As BANK Nifty is above 15800 then I plan to avoid shorting. As of now, I find a signal to avoid bank nifty as Nifty is more convincing for long. Due to high beta, Bank nifty can again try to test 16000 levels. Can we expect a buy signal? I feel that it can come but that is not impressive. 


11 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It can be a bad week. I still expect 7400 to hit as expected last week.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 11 April 2016: -

nifty

On 08 April 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 180.27:  DII Net Sold – INR – 159.01

Based on moving average study I can say that we can take Friday’s close as crucial development. We got two closes below 100 DMA. It is more important to note that Nifty has closed even below 20 EMA. Primary study suggests that below 100 DMA it has good chance of hitting 7400. Can this selling convert in to brutal sell off?

Well, I see such thing to happen but I can get a better confirmation after seeing reaction at 7400. On medium term chart, 7400 will emerge as crucial levels.

For today’s session, longer it trades below 7570 higher will be alarm. What shall be the target below 7570? Well, one can expect a level of 7400 in very quick succession. I do not think that it can easily cross above 7570. Even if it does so then also cannot surpass much.

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty April future – I expect a down opening backed by SGX Nifty but I am not too optimistic as of now. We may see levels of 7670-7700 as stiff resistance but it is strongly advisable to avoid long on higher side. Wait for a sign of weakness to trade from higher levels. Note that below 7700, we may see bigger slide. Who knows it may be 100-150 points down today.

BANK NIFTY – My studies are simple and same as Friday. Below 15600, it has target at 15300. I am adding that weakness can see extreme very soon. Do not make any long attempt even if one two days of rise comes. Sooner or later, it can see 14000 levels. For trading we can see resistance at 15800 and a point can emerge for shorting for intraday at higher levels.  


08 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: One more close below 7570 will give us 7400 !!! Do not buy in temptation.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 08 April 2016: -

niftyOn 06 April 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 493.56:  DII Net Sold – INR – 258.68

I have warned for the confirmation of top and I am getting all such signals. Nifty has closed below 100 DMA. Remember, I have already said this long back that long term trend is down. Rise is just an intermediate correction as up.

Optimistic people will say that it is just one day below 100 DMA and they will definitely eagerly waiting to see today’s closing levels. If it closes below 100 DMA, i.e. 7570 then many traders will give up their long. This makes me to say that if market trades below 7570 for long then it will give sharp fall in second half.

For today’s session, longer it trades below 7570 higher will be alarm. What shall be the target below 7570? Well, one can expect a level of 7400 in very quick succession. I do not think that it can easily cross above 7570. Even if it does so then also cannot surpass much.

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty April future – I expect a flat opening backed by SGX Nifty but I am not too optimistic as of now. We may see levels of 7670-7700 as stiff resistance but it is strongly advisable to avoid long on higher side. Wait for a sign of weakness to trade from higher levels. Note that below 7700, we may see bigger slide. Who knows it may be 100-150 points down today.

BANK NIFTY – My studies are simple. Below 15600, it has target at 15300. I am adding that weakness can see extreme very soon. Do not make any long attempt even if one two days of rise comes. Sooner or later, it can see 14000 levels. For trading we can see resistance at 15800 and a point can emerge for shorting for intraday at higher levels.  


07 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Do not get trap on any rise now. Sooner, a confirmation for fall will hit.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 07 April 2016: -

nifty

On 06 April 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 493.56:  DII Net Sold – INR – 258.68

I have predicted for a top with rate cut. We got rate on Tuesday and we saw a dip. Right now market is on its 100 DMA support. Nifty has 100 DMA support at 7570 levels. Once it breaks 7570 we can see better confirmation of top.

Will market try to be optimistic on earning season? Yes, it seems that it may take optimistic call but it has higher chance to fail on rise. Recent top of 7778 may remain untested. I suggest making exit from whatever long one has on investment account.

For today’s session, we may see levels of 7630-7650 for opening but every rise will face resistance till 7670. If it surpass above 7670 then we may have a possibility of rise to make a double top. In any way, Nifty looks for a topping out pattern. Sooner or later a fall will begin.

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty April future – I expect a higher opening backed by global cues but I am not too optimistic as of now. We may see levels of 7670-7700 on optimistic note but it is strongly advisable to avoid long on higher side. Wait for a sign of weakness to trade from higher levels. Note that above 77000, we may not have chance to short for intraday.  

BANK NIFTY – So, 16300 remains untested and we saw levels of 15600. Now, we may see some price recovery which may come as a gap up. If it breaks 15600 then a further dip towards 15300 is possible. I am expecting levels of 15300 sooner or later with resistance at 16300 hence my strategy is to capitalize rise for shorting and keeping stop loss above 16300. 


05 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Can we get a short term top with rate cut? Yes, it can!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 05 April 2016: -

nifty

On 04 April 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 236.82:  DII Net Sold – INR – 333.76

Finally, we are on for RBI monetary policy day. We all are hoping for rate cut. Some may say 25 bps and some may say 50 bps. I believe that we have a chance of hitting 7800 and a short term top if it has to come today.

Can it advance above 7800? It may be reality but I see a lesser chance. Technically, I see a possibility of top here and there around 7800. If top come on policy day then one should not try to touch in recent fall.

For today’s session, suppose if it stays below 7700 then avoid trading long ahead of many big events. I am still not bearish. I am just avoiding traded at top. Who knows I may get trap in long. Below 7680-7660 we may see weakness.  I have already advised caution yesterday on my twitter.

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty April future – I am keeping my analysis same as Nifty. I am avoiding index trading mode as it may not give clear direction although I am anticipating some rise as long as Nifty April future stays above 7740. Can give a test of 7800? Hope so!!! If it fails and breaks 7700-7680 then a fall is possible.

BANK NIFTY – My studies remains same. It has again closed on logical resistance is at 16150 where it has closed on last Thursday. I am not saying short but I have no good reason to buy again. Let us see. We may see resistance at 16300 as it has shown yesterday. Do not short but equally do not buy. Wait for RBI Policy or some strong trading signal. It may be a buy above 16300 !!!


04 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 7800 should be still a possibility before expiry. It’s a hope !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 04 April 2016: -

nifty

On 01 April 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 214.01:  DII Net Sold – INR – 519.91

We have RBI’s next monetary policy review tomorrow. This will decide the next course of action for market. I have already said for a top either at RBI policy decision or in between earning season. So far, the best part of market is that Nifty manages to close above 7700. This makes chart bullish before policy decision. If this continues like this then we can expect some higher levels before policy.

I still feel that Nifty has a chance of testing 7800 somehow. Historically, market used to be silent before big events.

For today’s session, suppose if it stays below 7700 then avoid trading long ahead of many big events. I am still not bearish. I am just avoiding traded at top. Who knows I may get trap in long. Below 7680-7660 we may see weakness.  

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty April future – I am keeping my analysis same as Nifty. I am avoiding index trading mode as it may not give clear direction although I am anticipating some rise as long as Nifty April future stays above 7740. Can give a test of 7800? Hope so!!!

BANK NIFTY – My studies remains same. It has again closed on logical resistance is at 16150 where it has closed on last Thursday. I am not saying short but I have no good reason to buy again. Let us see. We may see resistance at 16300 as it has shown yesterday. Do not short but equally do not buy. Wait for 05 April or some strong trading signal. It may be a buy above 16300 !!!


01 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Another short term top will come either on POLICY day or sometime in result season.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 01 April 2016: -

niftyOn 31 March 2015: FII Net Bought – INR 4056.62:  DII Net Sold – INR – 2890.57

We got a very dull expiry near 3 month’s high point on Nifty. Based on charting nothing much has change but we are moving very close to many crucial events. We have RBI’s next monetary policy review next week. After policy, earning will hit on market. So we have many news flows to come which will govern the market mood. We will get monsoon prediction also for this year which is expected to be above normal after many years. Another medium term TOP will come either on Policy day or sometime in result season.

Nifty has closed above 7700 but 7800 remains untested so far. As long as it is above 7700 traders may bet for 7800 but I am not very keen at this levels if we see silent trading. If rise has to come then it has to be violent.

For today’s session, suppose if it stays below 7700 then avoid trading long ahead of many big events. I am still not bearish. I am just avoiding traded at top. Who knows I may get trap in long. Below 7680 we may see weakness.  

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty April future – I am keeping my analysis same as Nifty. I am avoiding index trading mode. I may not prefer to trade long unless I get some strong reasons to buy. Nifty April future may so volatility in premium value. It is likely to readjust. If nifty spot stays below 7700 then one must avoid any long of long attempt.

BANK NIFTY – It has again closed on logical resistance is at 16150 where it has closed day before yesterday. I am not saying short but I have no good reason to buy again. Let us see. We may see resistance at 16300 as it has shown yesterday. Do not short but equally do not buy. Wait for 05 April or some strong trading signal.

 


31 March 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Can we expect expiry to end at 7800 +? I see a possibility if it can stay above 7750.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 31 March 2016: -

niftyOn 30 March 2015: FII Net Bought – INR 1442.47:  DII Net Sold – INR – 396.90

It was a great rally yesterday lead by banking index. Eventually, Nifty closed near to meaningful resistance of 7750. We have derivative expiry today. We can see tremendous volatility today. Logical charting conclusion is a buy above 7750. If it can spend time above 7750 then we can see levels of 7850 to 7900. This target of 7900 levels may take some time to hit but it is definitely a possibility once it closes above 7750.  

I still keep my words of caution. Take a note that 7650-7670 will act as zone of resistance. Only if it can surpass above 7670 then only I can opt to buy for retest of 7740. Failure @ 7670 will be a sell on rise again. As we are near to expiry so I will take real time call only.

For today’s session, I am expecting a flat start. Today is derivative expiry and I may not prefer to be very active as I least prefer to trade expiry day. If I have to pick a trade then I will prefer to pick a long if it can spend time above 7750 levels.

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

bnStrategy for Nifty April future – I am not very keen to trade but I feel that it can move advance. I am expecting expiry to come near to 7900 but that’s my hope on certain conditions. A bullish breakout can give such levels. Technical support is at 7750. Below 7750 I will not remain bullish.  

BANK NIFTY – A logical resistance is at 16150 where it has closed yesterday. I am not saying short. It can give a conditional buy. If it can spend time above 16150-16200 levels then it can see further 2% gains. I am expecting a level of 16500-16600 levels. It is true that this rise came after Mr. Mallya’s proposal of paying Rs 4000 crs to bank. We are near to next credit policy and today it derivative expiry day. Be careful. 


30 March 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Support 7570 is working so far. Can it take “U” turn from this support?


 

niftyYou must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 29 March 2016: -

On 23 March 2015: FII Net Bought – INR 2042.94:  DII Net Sold – INR – 2494.44

Nifty got sold at top again to close near 100 DMA support. I have already quoted for support at 7570 which has not broken yet. We have derivative expiry tomorrow and market set up for a gap up today. It may not be a big one but definitely a meaningful one.

I still keep my words of caution. Take a note that 7650-7670 will act as zone of resistance. Only if it can surpass above 7670 then only I can opt to buy for retest of 7740. Failure @ 7670 will be a sell on rise again. As we are near to expiry so I will take real time call only.

For today’s session, I am expecting positive start. It may be in the zone of 7650-7670 itself. After opening it need to maintain support at 7630. If not then a dip may hit. This time 100 SUPPORT and 7570, all may be tested.

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty March future – I am seeing a possible resistance to come at 7670-7680 levels after a gap up. If this can spend time above resistance then only it can be a buy. Based on pure charts, it can turn a SELL either @ top or the break below 7630-7620 levels. What’s coming a day before expiry?

S&P 500 (USA) – It turned a great day on Wall Street last night. It has crossed 2045 and moved by 10 points more. I had a conviction for 2100 levels from past few days. Only thing is that this rise was expected next week. No worry if it comes earlier. As of now I am seeing the possibility of 2100. It may come by this week or next week. 


29 March 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: My call “SELL @ TOP” worked yesterday and it can work even today. Technical resistance = 7650-7670!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

nifty

For 29 March 2016: -

On 23 March 2015: FII Net Bought – INR 2042.94:  DII Net Sold – INR – 2494.44

So it make a top in very first minutes yesterday and then kept on falling till last. This is what we have predicted for yesterday. Once again 7730-7750 will not take out so easily. Today is Tuesday of the expiry week and expiry effect may come in full form.

I advise strong precaution to trade on both sides. Do not take any move guaranteed. I was expecting 7600 in price correct which has done yesterday itself and we are out from out shorts now. I may opt to short again today but I am not fully convinced yet. Still, most likely that I will add short again today.

For today’s session, I am expecting flat to little positive start. 7650 is the level to watch out for resistance. Lower side support comes at 7570. Below 7570, get ready to see 7500. Take a note that 7530 support may not have meaning now.

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty March future – I may make a switchover to April month series. If I have to trade March Future then I will look for resistance to come at 7690-7700 levels. This may be a suitable level to short. It is too early to say if I can opt shorting or not but most likely I may opt shorting. If this works then we may see another 100 points dip from intraday high. Now, predict the top????

S&P 500 (USA) – I already have a view that US market will undergo consolidation till March end. It goes in the same way with positive biasing but almost a flat closing. This kind of trading pattern will continue for this week. I do not see any major trading opportunity. Important is the upcoming range. If it can close above 2045 then 2090-2100 can be a possibility.   


28 March 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Failure at 7730-7740 can cause “A SELL” @ top. Can it cross to give higher expiry?