09 December 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I am expecting a top near 8300. Do not be buyer at higher levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

nifty09 December 2016: -

On 08 December 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 698.86 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 64.32 Crs

Market is not disappointed after ECB meeting. Well, I can say that global sentiment is firm so far. Global sentiment is firm and one can say that it is saving the possible fall in Indian market. So it is just saving the fall. Based on Elliott wave count I can say that it is going to make a top here and there sooner. It may be the last day of rise which can come today. I strongly believe that a down move will start sooner in second half of the month.

For today’s trading I am expecting this up move to continue if this can sustain above 8250 levels. What can be the possible top point? My anticipation is that top can be near to 8300. I am keeping a room of 20 points as margin of error from 8300 levels. Technical support is at 8200 levels. As long as it is above 8200 we cannot get any firm sell signal but sell signal can emerge from higher levels.

It is strongly advisable that market may give a top sooner so do not take many long at these levels. December is not going to be comfortable month for trading.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – SGX Nifty is now trading above 8280 and we will see opening around those levels. Nifty Future can come around 8300 but much extension may not be possible. Technical support is at 8230 and then at 8200 levels. I have a soft forwarded long which I will give up at higher levels. We have yet to decide if we can think of shorting at higher levels.

BANK NIFTY – I need to repeat that above 18300 it can chance of hitting 18700. Below 18300 it can open room for 18000 levels. If a firm move has to come then it should settle above 18700 levels. Can we expect this kind of strength sooner? I do not think so. This can be a better instrument for fall rather than betting for a rise. 



08 December 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Global market rally can save Indian market. Nifty – will move higher if maintains above 8200!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

nifty08 December 2016: -

On 06 December 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 193.66 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 56.28 Crs

RBI has shocked the market. I must say that this move is now beyond my understanding. Many banks have already reduced their deposit rate on some forms of deposits. RBI’s press briefing is suggesting that we cannot see rate cut sooner as they are quoting “fear of inflation”. Well, and I see a possible phase of deflation on demand squeezing. How contradictory is this? Let us see who will go right.

For today’s trading I am expecting stiff resistance at 8200 levels. Market is exhibiting this resistance from past two trading sessions. Can we expect further returning of strong bears? I do not think that we can expect such attack immediately. Technical support is at 8050. US market and European market were up by nearly 2% on and average. This fact can save Indian market. Otherwise I do not see much reasons for no fall. It is for sure that those markets will see halt on rise sooner near New Year eve and then Indian market will see real test. Nifty may be up for the day. If is stand above 8200 then we can see fresh 100 points rise but those may be a tougher rise.

Technical resistance for Nifty is at 8250 and support is at 8080-8050.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – SGX Nifty is now trading above 8200 and we will see opening around those levels as almost all global indices are seeing big rally. Nifty Future has resistance at 8230. If it crosses above 8230 and sustain then we can also expect a mode of rise. Well, big question is will we see Nifty future sustaining above 8230? I have no clue.

BANK NIFTY – Bank Nifty remains alarming. This index is so far weaker than Nifty. I again repeat that if this index stays below 18300 then we can see a fall towards 18000. Now, 18000 will be decisive. Once it starts trading below 18000 then we can see a possible wave on down side.  



07 December 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Can RBI monetary policy able to give a push to the market? Technical support = 8100-8080

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

nifty07 December 2016: -

On 06 December 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 161.80 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 164.68 Crs

Well, day before yesterday we saw rise in last hour and yesterday we saw selling in last hour. It is happening very frequently and showing the confusion running in the market. Now we are close to RBI’s next monetary policy and market may like to take cue from those. I do not like to predict the outcome. We all may know this. No rate cut will be a surprise. Market may be discounting the rate cut which is most likely. So what can boost market? A comment on future policy will help bulls. Will it come?  

For today’s trading I am expecting a flat opening. Market levels remain same as of yesterday. Technical support will emerge at 8100-8080 and resistance lies at 8200. I am making a chance for the day. If Nifty can sustain above 8200 then it is most likely to impress bulls with its momentum. Normal sense suggests that it can give 8250-8300 kind of levels. For anything on down side Nifty needs to stand below 8100 which is not the case which I am expecting right now. Let us see. Nothing is possible for the day.

Technical resistance for Nifty is at 8250 and support is at 8125-8100. RBI policy may be the decisive event.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – I am not seeing the break of trading range sooner but can expect even based breakout or breakdown now. On higher side 8230-8250 is a resistance while on down side even if Nifty Future can stand below 8150-8140 we can see the rapid down side moves. Take a note that we cannot find any great trading opportunity if Nifty stand between 8220 to 8150. Trade soft.

BANK NIFTY – My call remains same and this index is not same as Nifty. Below 18300 we can expect 18000. It hits 18700 and then took a “U” turn. It is suggesting that 18700 will remains a decisive resistance on higher side. If fall continues from these levels then it can hit levels of 18300 and then it may start a move towards 18000 levels. Can we have chance to see a cross above 18700. Well, unless this happens do not trade long on this index. As long as it is above 18300, we can expect another test of 18700. It may not be too easy but it is possible. 



06 December 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Market need a follow up deal to get direction. Crucial support – 8080-8050-8000!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

06 December 2016: -

niftyOn 05 December 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 317.85 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 163.64 Crs

A dead cat bounce came from nearby levels of 8050 yesterday. What can be the possible outcome? I must say that bounce was impressive yesterday but real test of this bounce will do today. Can it able to surpass 8160? A 200 DMA. We have not seen follow up by bears or even bulls. Without follow up there cannot be any trend. I am not expecting any trend to emerge sooner. If trend has to come then it will come for down side only. Till then, it will be just countertrend rise if possible. I will not be very active before RBI monetary policy review for December.

For today’s trading I am expecting a flat opening. Market is most likely to be dead in first half. Even if volatility comes then also it cannot be wider than 20-30 points. I am in favour of yesterday’s recovery as there is no sign of dying yet. Let us see. Technical support will be at 8100-8080. On higher side cross above 8160 is a desperate need for bulls to claim for 8200.

Technical resistance for Nifty is at 8250 and support is at 8125-8100. Friday is going to be interesting.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – I have decisive position using option as instrument. Let us see how market is likely to shape up today. It may be the week which will be governed by events and its outcome. Time is on and we will see opening for further down. There is a chance of flattish move this week. if that happens then market will bounce from lower levels. Will it come?

BANK NIFTY – My call remains same and this index is not same as Nifty. Below 18300 we can expect 18000. It hits 18700 and then took a “U” turn. It is suggesting that 18700 will remains a decisive resistance on higher side. If fall continues from these levels then it can hit levels of 18300 and then it may start a move towards 18000 levels. Can we have chance to see a cross above 18700. Well, unless this happens do not trade long on this index. As long as it is above 18300, we can expect another test of 18700. It may not be too easy but it is possible. 



05 December 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Eventful week will decide the support. Technical support is at 8000.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

05 December 2016: -

niftyOn 02 December 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 190.52 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 418.58 Crs

I am still expecting 8000 but take a note that we have monetary policy this week. In fact this week will be full of events. Technical charts are not in favour of bulls as it has closed below 8100 levels. As long as it is below 8100 we can expect a possible dip towards 8000. I am definitely not greatly confident for the break below 8000 as of now. It will be time which will answer if we can slip below 8000 or not. I do not prefer to predict outcome of the event.

For today’s trading I am expecting a soft gap down. Market is most likely to slide today. We can expect support only at 8000 which may be weekly support too. On higher side 8160 and 8200 will be a decisive and stiff resistance. I am not taking any call for 8000 levels yet. I want to see market reaction at 8000 levels. On higher side no levels can be safer.

Technical resistance for Nifty is at 8250 and support is at 8125-8100. Friday is going to be interesting.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – I have decisive position using option as instrument. Let us see how market is likely to shape up today. It may be the week which will be governed by events and its outcome. Time is on and we will see opening for further down. There is a chance of flattish move this week. if that happens then market will bounce from lower levels. Will it come?

BANK NIFTY – My call remains same. Below 18300 we can expect 18000. It hits 18700 and then took a “U” turn. It is suggesting that 18700 will remains a decisive resistance on higher side. If fall continues from these levels then it can hit levels of 18300 and then it may start a move towards 18000 levels. Can we have chance to see a cross above 18700. Well, unless this happens do not trade long on this index.   



02 December 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: If I am right then 8250 may remain top of this price recovery. Expecting 8000 !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

02 December 2016: -

niftyOn 01 December 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 402.62 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 237.81 Crs

Technical set up is perfect for current fall, a wave of fall. Meaningful technical resistance was at 8250 levels which was just 50% retrenchment of fall. This may be the desired Elliott wave resistance which has put momentum on halt. Simple technical chart is suggesting that if trades sustain below 8200 then we can see the beginning of fresh wave of sell off. Well, will bulls give up easily?

For today’s trading I am expecting a bear gap down. It may be down below 8150. If this fails to recover then we can see the journey towards 7500 sooner or later. I am not claiming big but I am on my strategy of shorting rise today. Currency monetisation will have impact on economy and market must be nervous for next quarterly result. You like it or not but it seems that people has reduced their spending to a significant levels. So a big question – Is the size of economic transaction shrinking?

Technical resistance for Nifty is at 8250 and support is at 8125-8100. Friday is going to be interesting.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – So far, we have 7800 put only which I am on hold and I have planned to hold this for month. We were on short side yesterday almost from opening minutes. Today, I will wait for a price recovery after gap down and then I will prefer to short. I am keen to see 8200 or nearby levels for my shorting. There is no question of trading long unless something really happens big.

BANK NIFTY – It hits 18700 and then took a “U” turn. It is suggesting that 18700 will remains a decisive resistance on higher side. If fall continues from these levels then it can hit levels of 18300 and then it may start a move towards 18000 levels. Can we have chance to see a cross above 18700. Well, unless this happens do not trade long on this index.   

 



01 December 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Recovery may have more steam left for recovery. Can hit it 8300? May be yes.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

nifty01 December 2016: -

On 30 November 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 434.42 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 534.20 Crs

I was not prepared to trade long but when it crosses above 8200 then I also jumped to trade index on long side. Current pattern and momentum is suggesting that I was not right my call on resistance. It has more stream than what I was anticipated. If this momentum continues then we may have chance to see 8300 levels.

For today’s trading I am expecting a flat but a strongly optimistic start. Somehow I cannot feel that we should jump more on long side. I have sufficient warning sign of Elliott wave count. Extension is very much possible for this rise. It can extend as much as 8300 levels. Well, if I see the possibilities of 8300 then also we have room to trade long for good 70-80 points more.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – I traded long yesterday but my word of caution is still alive. There must be something which is pulling market. At least there is no short signal. Let us see where we can expect a halt. Technically, 8340-8360 is reachable. 8200 may be a support that will not break so easily. I still say, top is near.   

BANK NIFTY – My views remains same for BANK NIFTY we are almost on 18700 on Nifty. I can repeat that resistance is at 18700 only we are too far from that level. Hence, it is time to just watch. I am not in favour of taking trades at this levels which is not giving me certain buy or sell yet. We may not see much action in coming few days. Do not touch this index to trade. If there is a trade then it can be just long side from lower levels. Big question is what can be that lower levels. 



30 November 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Shall we trade long? My answer remains same – IGNORE rise and be safe!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

30 November 2016: -

niftyOn 29 November 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 715.30 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 534.20 Crs

Well, Nifty turned shy at 8200. I can say that market has not able to find buyer at 8200 yesterday. This gave us a sense that 8200 may turn decisive today. I am not very optimistic. It is my strong view that Indian market get an extended recovery due to good rise in US market which has compensate the bad sentiment. Currents developments are suggesting that we should not expect the expected rate cut in December.  

For today’s trading I am expecting a flattish start. I just do not want to participate long in the zone of 8150 to 8200 levels. My view is simple that if market wants to take a turn then it can be the level. Sooner or later it will take a turn. Technical support is at 8100 and the next support is at 8050 levels. Let us see which support will get respect and which resistance will come in to play.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – I can still say I will not be buyer at or near 200 DMA. I am expecting 8220 as decisive resistance. Technical support is far away and that it only at 8120 and then at 8070 levels. I am still not clear for a trade. I am getting a sense of some brutal topping out sooner or later.  

BANK NIFTY – My views remains same for BANK NIFTY. I can repeat that resistance is at 18700 only we are too far from that level. Hence, it is time to just watch. I am not in favour of taking trades at this levels which is not giving me certain buy or sell yet. We may not see much action in coming few days. Do not touch this index to trade. If there is a trade then it can be just long side from lower levels. Big question is what can be that lower levels. 



29 November 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 200 DMA is at 8157. Strong caution is advisable from higher levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

29 November 2016: -

niftyOn 28 November 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 1436.40 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1233.79 Crs

I am avoiding this level to be active. We are near to 200 DMA which is at 8156. If we have to see reactions on market again then it can come anytime sooner here. In my view market will not have big reasons to move up further. I want to decisive for next course of action. An up from here or a down from here will be taken keeping a view for upcoming monetary policy review. I am expecting only choppy moves here which may not be suitable to trade. There is no substantial sell even though we are on resistance.

For today’s trading I am expecting a flattish start. Market may not do much at these levels. It is advisable not to trade unnecessarily in choppy zones. We may not able to see good range on index to trade index although some stocks may be very active. Technical support is at 8070-8050 as of now. On higher side 8160 is the levels which like to watch.  

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – Near to 200 DMA I do not want to be active without any significant signal to trade. Technical resistance is expected to emerge at 8180-8200 levels only. In down side we can expect support to come at 8080. Unless it stays below 8080 there cannot be sell. I am expecting some more choppy sessions before monetary policy review.

BANK NIFTY – I can repeat that resistance is at 18700 only we are too far from that level. Hence, it is time to just watch. I am not in favour of taking trades at this levels which is not giving me certain buy or sell yet. We may not see much action in coming few days. Do not touch this index to trade. If there is a trade then it can be just long side from lower levels. Big question is what can be that lower levels. 


25 November 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Global sentiments is saving fresh fall in Indian market. Fall to come sooner or later.

niftyYou must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

25 November 2016: -

On 24 November 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 2010.15 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1648.22 Crs

I will say that expiry was rather better than what I was expecting. Low for Nifty was just at 7953. Well, we have last day of the week and beginning of new month series. If Indian market is getting support from lower levels then key reason is global sentiment which is better than expected. US market is flying at newer high. If correction hits in US market then Indian market may be in worse shape. DJIA has seen a massive 1200 points rally in past 20 days and this still continues.

For today’s trading I am expecting a flattish start which may turn on decisive mode again for bulls and bears. My expectation is that market may not able to save for longer time. No bounce can sustain at higher levels just like it has witnessed in past few days. In clear sense it has denied the bounce in price recovery. This is just a time based consolidation. 8100 is a resistance and 7900 is a support.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – There were many attempts for 8100 in past few days but all has failed at top. Technical support is at 7980 levels. Well, I am not suggesting one should participate in any kind of rise as those are not convincing yet. Even if the rise comes then also it will be of very nominal magnitude. If trading range remains limited then do not participate in trade. There cannot be any trend in 20-30 points of nifty.

BANK NIFTY – I will rather say recovery has not convinced me at all. Technical charts are justifying for another round of sell off. If this happens then we can hope for the retest of 18200-18000 levels very sooner. It can be as sooner as today only. On higher side 18700 will act stiff resistance levels. We can see sell off in the month of December too. 



24 November 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Derivative expiry may go wild in favour of bears. My expectation is 7930-7900!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

24 November 2016: -

On 23 November 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 1023.12 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1254.67 Crs

Bear market is the one where recovery comes in timid ways like the way we are seeing this on Nifty. Technical charts are justifying the resistance of 8100 but Nifty remains far away from those levels. We have derivative expiry today and this day is known to be a day of havoc. I feel that market may not favour bulls anymore now. If I am right then Nifty can close on lowest point on this month expiry. It may go as low as 7900 levels.

For today’s trading I am expecting a negative start today as market has already failed to breach resistance yesterday even after best of efforts. This makes me to believe after reading short term wave count. Elliott short term may not work every time but it is showing us a possibility of 7900 for expiry day. Let us see. I will not be very active on expiry day as usual.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – I was expecting 8100 and at one time it was coming close to the given levels but in last minutes sell off it has washed again. Now it is looking for a soft start. Technical support is at 8000-7980 levels. If it is likely to test of break those levels. If it breaks 7980 then we can expect levels of 7930-7900 in quick time. Today is derivative expiry and hence take a word of caution on my views.

BANK NIFTY – I will rather say recovery has not convinced me at all. Technical charts are justifying for another round of sell off. If this happens then we can hope for the retest of 18200-18000 levels very sooner. It can be as sooner as today only. On higher side 18700 will act stiff resistance levels. We can see sell off in the month of December too. 



23 November 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: First resistance for relief rally is at 8100.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

23 November 2016: -

niftyOn 22 November 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 692.85 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1075.20 Crs

If one compares Indian indices with global leaders like US then one can feel the pain. To me, it seems like Indian market is getting support of global sentiments. Please note that US indices are on all-time high. Equally, it was heavily oversold. We are on derivative expiry week and we have derivative expiry next week. We should get bounce but I have waited long for this technical recovery but failed to capitalize it. Finally, I gave up long attempts on tiring mode. It seems that majority of the recovery may come when I have no position to bet on recovery. I am still unbiased.

My views remains same, a recovery deserve at this point of time but this will be a bear market recovery. This force me to believe that market will not extend much and will not sustain longer. The minimum of my expectation is 8100 which I think that should be catchable. I have a view that the way November is going we may get uncertain December too. Presenting views on market is one thing and converting view in to trades can be even tougher.

For today’s trading I am expecting a positive start as indicated by SGX Nifty. Do not misinterpret. It is a mixed impact of oversold zone and all-time high in US market. A simple expectation is 8100 and a fall to resume sooner.

Well, take a note – we may be under bear market till 31st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – I am expecting a bounce but this can be a bear market bounce. I started adding puts of December month in order to capitalise fall. If I have to capitalise rise then I will do it used index future only. I am sensing for many more gaps coming in the days to come. Technical resistance for Nifty December future is at 8100 levels. Near to derivative expiry, I do not prefer to trade.

BANK NIFTY – Well, a bounce is deserve but this bounce may not be impressive to trade for recovery hence I am changing my strategy. Previously, I was trying to capitalise recovery but I think that it is better to be short side which can be just a major trend. Moves against main trade should be ignored. Technical support is only at 18000 levels which will break sooner or later. 



22 November 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A relief rally can be just a bear market bounce. I need a strong magnitude for bounce.  

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

22 November 2016: -

niftyOn 21 November 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 1310.82 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1211.01 Crs

This is overdone for even me who said for this fall. Global market remains up to firmly up and Indian market is on panic note. Well, I cannot say that fear is without any reason or it is unnecessary. Fear should be there and we have enough reason to be fearful. Impact of currency demonetization will sustain for at least two quarter on economy. I am already seeing a possible slowing down in economy in near term. Such steps are good for long term.

Let us see the technical set up. We have a medium term recovery wave from 6800 to 8900 and we are almost on mid-point of the recovery. Who would have expected this way. Well, its market way. 7900 should act as technical support if 8000 has not worked. We are going to get the answer today if we can get the support and bounce.

For today’s trading I am expecting a positive start. Can we able to see a gap up? Please take a note that we not only need a gap up but also a bull’s gap up for any kind of reversal in trend. This may not be easy in this kind of environment. Technical support will be at 7900 levels. Unless it can stand above 8050 we cannot say that pain is over. A bounce is needed for fresh fall. Hope for a bounce now. It will be a bear market bounce.  

Well, take a note – we may be under bear market till 31st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty November future – I am expecting a bounce but not claiming so far. We have derivative expiry this week and it will be interesting week to see market closing. Technical support for Nifty November future will be at 7930-7920 zone. If this can open and sustain above 8000 then only can able to see some days of relief. One should use any relief rally to exit any kind of long position or to exit investment.

BANK NIFTY – well, from 18000 levels also if recovery is not coming then it is giving a scary picture of the days to come. I am expecting a bounce but I am equally saying that nothing can give much relief to bulls. One should trade long time to time for bounce but one need to be on short side most of the time in coming months. 



21 November 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Will Nifty test 8000 or will Nifty break 8000?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

21 November 2016: -

niftyOn 18 November 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 926.32 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1143.42 Crs

I have a simple comparison to show trouble for Indian market. S&P USA has all time at 2193 and it is still at 2182 now. We have all time high at 9100+ and we are now near to 8100. Do not think that this under performance is an opportunity to buy. It is reverse. It may be opportunity to sell. Never think that all indices in the world will necessarily move parallel to each other.

Let, us focus on Indian indices. Nifty is failing to take support at 8100 with is giving an alarm for the test of 8000 levels. I am still not saying that bounce will not come. What I am saying is that market is failing to give a sign of bounce and shorting without bounce is giving a higher stop loss. Hence, we cannot trade long or short at current levels.

For today’s trading I am expecting a flat opening but I am not very convinced for the bounce yet although I have soft long on index which I may give up. Let us see if we can get support or Nifty will hit 8000. What market is needed as booster dose is – Rate cut. If bounce comes from 8000 levels then also it should give some remarkable recovery based on wave’s formation.

Well, take a note – we may be under bear market till 31st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty November future – I have no trade on index right now. I am expecting a recovery based on Elliott wave levels but we have no concrete sign so far. If slide continues then it can be bleeding. 101% this may not be time to do many adventures. I cannot say about exact levels for support. It may be at 8050 or 8000. Depending on outcome I will decide by next course of action.

BANK NIFTY – I have no great view on Bank nifty. I am not that firm on my view for bounce now. Today is the last day. If it comes then it is fine else I may look to trade short. This may not be easy to short without any bounce but traders will not left with many choice. Below 19000, who knows what kind of levels will start to come.     



18 November 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Currency demonetization will have impact on upcoming Q-results. Max 8200-8300 then 7500 is my expectation.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

18 November 2016: -

On 17 November 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 983.93 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1144.15 Crs

This is the impact of currency demonetization will have impact on quarterly number. This is the fact that market is now scared about. Well, I am expecting technical support to emerge in between 8050-8000 but so far I am unable to see any sign of revival. If this goes in this way then one has to prepare for a massive slide. I have already said that this can be bear market pullback which may be denied.  

I am not very convinced with technical signal for bounce but I am convinced with one clue for not shorting without bounce. Technical support for the day is at 8050-8000 levels. Sooner after a pullback Nifty will be hunted by bears for 10% dip from the top of pullback levels. Roughly it can be 7500, which I am seeing for 31st December 2016. Figures can be worse than my expectation.

For today’s trading I am expecting a flat opening but I am not very convinced for the bounce yet although I have soft long on index which I may give up. Let us see if we can get support or Nifty will hit 8000. What market is needed as booster dose is – Rate cut.

Well, take a note – we may be under bear market till 31st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty November future – I have a soft long on Nifty from yesterday but I may not hold my long too long. I may give up today. I am expecting a recovery based on Elliott wave levels but we have no concrete sign so far. If slide continues then it can be bleeding. 101% this may not be time to do many adventures. I cannot say about exact levels for support. It may be at 8050…

BANK NIFTY – I am not that firm on my view for bounce now. Today is the last day. If it comes then it is fine else I may look to trade short. This may not be easy to short without any bounce but traders will not left with many choice. Below 19000, who knows what kind of levels will start to come.     



17 November 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Short term wave counts are giving hint of pullback but not confirmed to tradable extent yet.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

17 November 2016: -

niftyOn 16 November 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 1957.04 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 2344.31 Crs

I am advocating for a long term down trend from past one year. So far, market is not up. Well, but I am not saying that short term or impulsive recovery may not come. At current levels, we have a short term wave count which is giving hint for recovery in index although this may not be very impressive. At least, we should avoid shorting at these levels. 100 points here and there is very much possible in uncertain picture.

I am not very convinced with technical signal for bounce but I am convinced with one clue for not shorting without bounce. Technical support for the day is at 8050-8000 levels.

For today’s trading we are going to see flat opening after many days. I am expecting trading support at 8050 and 8000 levels. I may opt trading long from lower levels if comes. On higher side we are too far from safer levels. We may not see anything great for bulls unless Nifty go and close above 8240. Well, take a note – we may be un bear market till 31st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count.

Someone asked me if global market is Up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.